Short-Term VIPV Power Forecasting using Machine Learning
Vehicle-Integrated Photovoltaics (VIPV) present unique forecasting challenges that differ fundamentally from fixed-site solar systems. This research develops a VIPV-specific data pipeline and benchmarks machine learning models — on two years of real-world BMW i3 sensor data collected in Sydney, Australia.
A key contribution is the causal day-shape prototype feature engineering framework, which improves CatBoost's RMSE gain from −0.48% to +15.14% across walk-forward validation. Interpretability analysis using SHAP and TFT's Variable Selection Network reveals that short-term VIPV forecasting is driven more by operational state than by raw irradiance — a finding with direct implications for onboard energy management system design.
Supervisors: Prof. Nicholas Ekins-Daukes · A/Prof. Gustavo Batista · UNSW Sydney


